The Average Hall of Famer
This is a two-part quantitative analysis of players inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame and possible 2022 inductee. Part one analyzes the current Hall of Famers and their career statistics. Part two compares possible new inductees’ statistics to formulated average statistics. The Hall of Fame is comprised of 339 elected members. There are total of 267 former major league players, as well as 40 executives/pioneers, 22 managers and 10 umpires. On 25 January, the Hall of Fame will announce the results of the voting for the Class of 2022.
Part one is focused on the players. Players are broken into two groups: hitters and pitchers. For hitters, data was compiled from six statistical categories: WAR, batting average, hits, runs batted in (RBI), home runs (HR), and all-star game appearances. WAR, or wins above replacement, measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. This is the newest form of comparing players. Batting average, RBI, and HR are the three most tracked number for hitters. For pitchers, WAR, wins, earned run average (ERA) [lower the better], strike outs, and All-Star game appearances are used to determine their value. Wins, ERA, and strike outs are the pitching counterparts of batting average/RBIs/HRs. All-Star game appearances are voted during the season by the fans. Will or should fan-favorites have effect on Hall of Fame selection? For simplicity, pitchers’ batting statistic are left out and Babe Ruth is considered a hitter for this research, not a pitcher.
Part One — Hitters
Data was gathered from 179 hitters already inducted into the Hall of Fame. The average hitter has a WAR of 61.0, batting average of .307, 2,193 hits, 1,154, 196 HR, and five All-Star game appearances. What does that mean? Is that good? Baseball has statistical milestones. For hitters it is reaching 3,000 hits or crushing 500 HRs. These are pretty much guarantees to make the Hall of Fame; however, other accomplishments play a role.
From my research, only nine players exceed set averages in all six categories. Those players are Roberto Clemente, Edgar Martinez, Paul Molitor, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Derek Jeter, and Ted Williams. Are these the only true Hall of Famers? No, not in my opinion. Some players fall short in certain stats and are still Hall of Famers. Here are examples of Hall of Famers who did not reach these averages but are rightfully inducted. Plus, take in consideration that the first All-Star game was in 1933.
The great Hank Aaron was the all-time HR king for decades with 755 HRs. Aaron has nearly four-times the HRs than the average Hall of Famers but fails to reach the average career batting average of .307 by batting .305. In addition, Aaron has a WAR 143.1 (double the average) and Major League record of 25 All-Star game selections. Yes, Henry, “Hank” Aaron is a Hall of Famer. Hall of Famer greats Ernie Banks and Mickey Mantle did not have batting averages over .300 either but each hit over 500 HRs.
In contrast, there are Hall of Famers who do not reach any of these averages. Many of these player pre-date All-Star games. Despite meeting the average of five All-Star games, Yankee shortstop turned broadcaster Phil Rizzuto’s career numbers fail short of the averages. Pirate second baseman Bill Mazeroski surpasses the average number All-Star games with 14 appearances but falls short to reach the other data averages. Newly inducted White Sox player Minnie Minoso matches Mazeroski’s situation by not reaching the mediums excluding 13 All-Star games. What makes these players Hall of Famers versus very good or great players? Do these players water down the standards or the value of the Hall of Fame?
Part One — Pitchers
Data was collected by the same method for pitchers. Each pitcher has an average WAR of 65.2, 236 wins, 3.01 ERA, 2,049 strike outs and four All-Star games. Of the 82 pitchers, only three players surpassed the averages in all categories, they are: Bob Gibson, Jim Palmer, and Tom Seaver. This list expands by six if a player played prior to 1933. Those additional players are Grover (Pete) Cleveland Alexander, Walter Johnson, Tom Keefe, Christy Mathewson, Eddie Plank, and Cy Young. Milestones for pitchers are 300 wins and/or 3,000 strike outs. Like any other industry, the sports industry evolves over time and baseball is no exception. Due to the modified structure of the game and how managerial concepts have changed over the past century, it is highly unlikely another pitcher will reach these milestones.
There are players who miss the mark on certain categories but exceed in other. Greg Maddux is an example of this. Maddux dominated on the mound for the Braves and Cubs. Maddux is deservingly in the Hall of Fame with a WAR of 106.6, 355 wins, 3,372 strike outs, and eight All-Star games, minus an above average ERA of 3.16 (lower the better). Lefty Steve Carlton surpasses all expectation expect for the ERA average too. Even the strike out king Nolan Ryan mirror Maddux and Carlton with high ERA numbers. No one would argue their place in the Hall of Fame.
Like hitters, there are pitchers in the Hall of Fame with subpar numbers. One shocking player is Mariano Rivera. Rivera has the distinction of being the only inductee to receive 100% of the votes in his election ever. Furthermore, Rivera holds the record for most game saves (652). Rivera’s WAR is 56.3, 8.9 points below the average. Rivera also fails to meet the average for wins (236) with only 82. Take in consideration that Rivera was move to the bullpen early in his career and only started 10 games. Unlike Carlton, Maddux, and Ryan, Rivera’s ERA is better.
Conversely, there are pitchers who career numbers are below the average. Goose Gossage, Bob Lemon, and Lee Smith do not reach the average in WAR, wins, ERA, or strike outs. These players do have above average numbers of All-Star games. Do numbers of innings play a part? Both Gossage and Smith were relief pitchers for most their career but not Lemon. Lemon was a starting pitcher.
Part Two — Class of 2022
The same data was recorded to compare the eligible candidates for the upcoming Class of 2022 announcement. There is a possibility that no one will be selected. It has happened before and most recently was last year. A player must receive 75% of the votes to be inducted. This class has 30 players, 20 hitters, and 10 pitchers. All these players have played after 1933 which removes any question of their All-Star status.
Two players have met or exceeded the standard averages set by predecessors: Manny Ramirez and Todd Helton. Outfielder Manny Ramirez spent most of his career in an Indians and a Red Sox uniform. Ramirez ended his career with a WAR 69.3 (average 61.0), .312 batting average (.307), 2,574 hits (2,193), 1,831 RBIs (1,154), 555 HRs (196), and 12 All-Star games (5). Accolades of a career batting average over .300 or hitting over 500 HRs are enough to send a player to the Hall of Fame. Todd Helton played for the Rockies and acquired a WAR of 61.8, batted .316, 2,519 hits, 1,406 RBIs, 369 HRs and played in five All-Star games. Helton’s number pass all averages except for number of All-Star game where he meets the average. Writers should take these two well-rounded players into serious consideration when voting.
Honorable mentions go to Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Roger Clemens. No matter how you feel about performance enhancing drugs (a topic for another time), statistics should be the only factor involved when voting for Hall of Famers. Both Bonds and Rodriguez easily surpass numbers set by predecessors before them except for in the batting average categories- like Aaron. Bonds finished with .298 and Rodriguez with.295. Mickey Mantle had a career batting average of .298. Barry Larkin and Duke Snider had career averages of .295. These are respectable numbers. Roger Clemen’s numbers followed the same path as Carlton, Maddux, and Ryan. They exceed standards except for ERA numbers. If players have similar numbers to Hall of Famers, shouldn’t they be Hall of Famer to?
Baseball is a game of numbers. There is a statistic for everything. That is what drove me to write this article before the new Class of 2022 is announced. I wanted to provide readers with facts and numbers before it is skewed by opinions of sports writers. Some sports writers value certain statistics over others. In addition, sport writers and fans may add more value to players with personal connection with teams or memories of a specific play or player. Sports writers ought to use facts like batting averages and numbers of home runs for their justifications and not their emotions. Either way, voters should ask, do they meet the requirements?
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/major-league-baseballs-first-all-star-game-is-held
